Our CFP prediction model is built to predict the top 4 because as of now, that’s all that matters. It was 24-for-24 entering this year, and after we made some assumptions to adjust it for 2020, we ended up getting the top 4 right again. The reason we’re able to maintain this accuracy is that the committee has been fairly consistent over the years in the way it parses out who makes it and who doesn’t among the final contenders. But after the top 4 … it gets dicey.
Read more about our model, the irregularities of 2020, and how a potential expansion of the playoff field would impact our predictions in the future.