After a very interesting weekend of college football, we are starting to see a clearer picture of what the College Football Playoff will look like this year.
After finishing the regular season 12-0, our model gives Georgia a 100% chance of making it, regardless of what happens in the SEC title game. Behind them, a clear group of 4 schools has emerged as the most likely candidates to fill the remaining 3 spots. Cincinnati (also at 12-0) is in unless Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Alabama all win next week. Michigan is a lock if they beat Iowa, Oklahoma State is in if they beat Baylor, and Alabama needs a win over Georgia. As long as all three of those scenarios don’t come true, then Bearcats fans can feel good about their chances.
As a reminder, Navigate has created this model to predict who the CFP selection committee will choose after the regular season is completed and the conference championship games have been played. These are not rankings. They are the projected chances of each school making the CFP.
We’ve teamed up with AthleticDirectorU to release our probabilities. Navigate President Jeff Nelson joins Matt Brown for a podcast to breakdown and discuss the probabilities each week.
The below graphic breaks down the average number of teams from each conference selected to the playoff in our 3,500 simulations. The SEC is currently the only conference with an average above 1, and is the most likely conference to have 2 teams selected (Georgia and Alabama).