College Football Playoff Probabilities Recap – Dec. 7
Our model remains perfect over the years in predicting the CFP TOP 4 after the conference championship games have been played. The graphic below shows our final probabilities as of Sunday (prior to the CFP rankings reveal).
In addition to going 4 for 4 on the CFP teams (now 32 for 32 since the inception of the playoff format), the model also accurately picked 11 out of the top 12. This is true despite it not being calibrated to focus as precisely beyond the top 4.
The only team missed was Michigan State. The model takes into account margin of defeat when it’s 10 points or above, and therefore punished the Spartans more severely for their 56-7 loss to Ohio State than the committee ultimately did. The result was our top 12 including Oklahoma, despite them ending up as 16 on the final CFP rankings.
As a reminder, Navigate has created this model to predict who the CFP selection committee will choose after the regular season is completed and the conference championship games have been played. These are not rankings. They are the projected chances of each school making the CFP.
We’ve teamed up with AthleticDirectorU to release our probabilities. Navigate President Jeff Nelson joins Matt Brown for a podcast to breakdown and discuss the probabilities each week.
Read the full article and listen to the podcast from this week (Dec. 6).
